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Basic Concepts of Real Estate Marketability Analysis
Wayne Foss, DBA, MAI, CRE, FRICS
Foss Consulting Group
Email: wfoss@fossconsult.com
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Property Productivity Concepts
Productivity Analysis -
Analysis of a property’s capacity to deliver services to meet human needs, house economic activities, and supply satisfaction and amenities.
A parcel of real estate produces (supplies) services for those who use it.
Price paid is a function of:
its supply of services relative to potential users’ purchasing power
need for its services
inability to find good substitutes at a lower price
Market Analysis in Real Estate is different from other types of market analysis
real estate is not well defined
product can change over time
location is fixed
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Property Productivity Concepts
Focus of the discussion for all aspects of the subject property is to:
Segment the subject market to address advantages and disadvantages
Property Productivity Analysis seeks to answer:
What does the subject have to offer to the market?
What are the subject’s competitive advantages and disadvantages
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Property Productivity:
Site and Improvements
Design and condition of the subject can limit the potential market it can serve.
Physical attributes analysis is the initial action in marketability analysis
Physical attributes of the site:
Size, Shape, Topography, Climate
Vegetation, Natural Drainage, Floodplain
Soil and Subsoil
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Property Productivity:
Site and Improvements
Physical Attributes of a Structure
Exterior physical features
Substructure and Superstructure
Interior physical features:
Walls, Supports and Finish
Equipment and Mechanical Systems
Plumbing, Heating, Ventilating, and air-conditioning
Electrical
Miscellaneous including fire protection, sprinklers, escalators and elevators, signal, alarm or call systems
Market Appeal Attributes
Unique and Special features of a property
Think: Appeal to Who or what group of users?
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Property Productivity:
Legal and Regulatory Attributes
Regulations may be Public or Private
Can enhance or detract from the value of the property
Examples of Constraints:
Local Zoning Ordinances and General Plans
restrict a site that is ideal for an office building to residential housing
strong neighborhood association prevents changes in use
Local Subdivision Codes
requirements for extra wide streets and landscaping increase cost of development, thereby reducing the supply
Examples of Enhancements:
Rezoning of a neighborhood that is undergoing transition to a higher and more intensive use. (i.e.: residential to commercial)
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Property Productivity:
Location Determinants
Linkages:
Transportation linkages
Movement of people, goods and services to and from the subject
Utility linkages: gas pipelines, sewer, water, telephone, electricity
Components
Route: The established or directed course of travel between two spatially separate parcels of real estate
Access: The ability to enter or pass to a site from a route, or to a route from a site.
Examples are streets, curb cuts, sewer laterals
Travel Mode: The locomotion method for traversing a route and gaining access.
Examples are automobile, bus, train, truck, airplane, boats, etc.
Route Orientation: A route may be oriented inward toward the subject, outward from the subject or dual directional.
Example, a grocery store located on a busy street so that people returning from work can easily stop.
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Property Productivity:
Location Determinants
Exposure and Externalities
May have positive or negative effects on the productivity of the site and its linkages
Neighborhood Externalities
neighborhood character - properties compatibility with each other
Linkage Externalities
impairment to the productivity of the land such as when a sewer has reached it’s capacity, but the neighborhood is only one-half developed or streets are too narrow and overcrowded.
Classification of Externalities
can be Positive or Negative, Natural or Man-made
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Property Productivity:
Location Determinants
Associations: Different types of property require different linkages and land use associations
Housing must be linked to jobs, shopping and community facilities
Retail uses need customers
Office uses are supported by hotels, print shops and restaurants
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Property Productivity:
Location Determinants
Situs Analysis as a Land Use Predictor
Definition: The total urban environment as it relates to a specific land use on a specific land parcel as they function in time.
A Process of analysis of the subject location
Identifying activities in the area
Establishing the nature of associations between the activities
Identifying and analyzing the accessibility of the site to the surrounding area
Identifying and evaluating the total environmental impact of the area on the site use.
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Urban Growth Structure Analysis
Theories of Urban Growth
Concentric Zone Structure
Presumes five concentric zones that influence property use
Presumes growth is outward from the central core.
Can be a ripple effect from the center of major intersections of transportation arteries
Sector Structure
Urban area will develop in sectors in which high, middle and low-income residents will tend to group
High income groups will purchase the most desirable areas for their houses
Middle groups will strive to join the upper-income groups
Basic premise is that higher-income groups establish the general direction of urban growth
Presumes that growth occurs at the urban fringe.
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Urban Growth Structure Analysis
Theories of Urban Growth
Multi-nuclei Structure
Basic premise is that an urban area does not necessarily develop from a single core, but around several distinct nuclei.
Presumes that land uses will locate to form nodes.
Examples: harbors attract docks and warehouses, courthouses attract attorney’s offices
Radial-Corridor Structure
urban development often takes place along major transportation routes
growth can be predicted based on the development of major transportation arteries
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Multiple Nuclei
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Current Trends in a Metropolitan Area
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Practice Problem 2.1
Analysis of Growth Patterns
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Market Area Concepts
Demand and Time-Distance Relationships
Most common way to define a market area
Example: Primary market area for a neighborhood convenience store is a five minute driving time.
Example: Primary market area for a outlet mall is forty miles or 1 to two hour driving time.
Principle of Substitution
The area in which equally desirable substitute properties compete with the subject can delineate a market area.
Population Projection Area
Must identify the area to be included in the projection
Projection area is different for different property types
How much of the market can I capture? or
What will be my market share?
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Demand Concepts
Local Economic Analysis
The Economic Overview
Provides the base data for analysis of the subject’s market segment
Support for location analysis and the economic relationship to physical growth patterns
Helps to identify the demand segment
Provides data to check the secondary data and forecasts made by other professionals
Demand Side Economic Variables
employment
population and households
income
housing
retail expenditures
spatial growth patterns
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Relationship of the Local Economic Overview to the Marketability Analysis Process
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Demand Side Economic Variables
Employment
Total Employment for the Subject Market Area
By NAICS (formerly SIC) Code
Major Employers and Industries
Economic Base Analysis
Unemployment
Sources of Employment Data
Regional Planning Agencies
Metropolitan or City Planning Agencies
University forecasting centers
Department of Labor for the State
Local Development Agencies
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Demand Side Economic Variables
Population and Households
Population and Number of households and families, population in group quarters
Household: includes all the persons who occupy a housing unit
Family: includes a householder and one or more persons related to the householder by birth, marriage or adoption.
Composition variables
Age distribution
Education and Occupation
Income Distribution
Household Size
Sources of Population Data
Regional Planning Agencies
Metropolitan or City Planning Agencies
University forecasting centers
Department of Labor for the State
Local Development Agencies
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Demand Side Economic Variables
Income
Mean, Median and per Capita Income
Income Distribution
Data to Gather and Analyze
Number of existing housing units
New Construction
Types of existing and newly constructed housing units
Occupancy and vacancy data
Price level
Compositional data concerning the housing stock
size, age, style, stories, etc.
Mortgage interest rates and credit availability
Demolitions and net conversions
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Demand Side Economic Variables
Retail Expenditures
The retail SIC Codes (generally codes 44)
Characteristics of and differences among convenience, neighborhood, community, regional and super-regional shopping centers
Data to Gather and Analyze
Sales by retail category or NAICS (SIC) code
Typical sales volume per square foot of space for different retail establishments
Tenant mix in successful shopping centers by type of center
The percentage of income spent by consumers on different retail products or spent in different retail establishments
Should prepare or obtain forecasts for expenditures by retail categories and changes in the purchasing power of the population in the study area
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Demand Analysis
Housing Market
Population forecast
Income
Household Size
Age
Rental versus owner-occupied
Retail Market
Population forecast
Disposable income - available for retail sales
Household size
Spending patterns
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Demand Analysis
Office Market
Employment by NAICS and SIC codes
Occupied office space percentage
Occupied detached office space percentage
Typical size of occupancy
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Supply Analysis
Must be performed in relationship to the market that is being analyzed.
For Example: the market for new residential construction
The Supply of New Residential Construction
Number of new residential construction
affected by: price of land, construction labor, financing, materials and risk
The number of builders in the market
Builders expectations about profits
Seasonality
The Supply of Resale Units
Economic factors such as employment and layoffs
Employee relocation
Reduction in household purchasing power
Family life cycle - changes in household needs due to maturing population
Mortgage interest rates
Price of substitute housing
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Supply and Demand Interaction
Indicators of Oversupply or Excess Demand
Vacancy (or occupancy) rates
Absorption Rates
Demand compared to supply that suggests an excess of supply (or demand)
Rising (or declining) prices and/or rents
Lack of Sale transactions
Important Questions to Ask and Answer
Do the current trends in absorption, vacancies etc. make sense and support the demand and supply conditions?
What is the current stage of the real estate cycle?
How long might these observed conditions persist?
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Summary of the Basic Concepts
Property Productivity Analysis
Physical and market appeal attributes of the site and the structures
Legal and Regulatory constraints
Location attributes
Urban Growth and the forces that influence them
Market Area Concepts
Time-distance relationships
Market or Trade Area (population projection area)
Demand Concepts
Major economic variables
Employment
Population and Households
Income
Housing
Retail Expenditures
Spatial Growth paths
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Summary of the Basic Concepts
Supply Concepts
Stock of competitive properties
Changes in the stock
Influences on the supply of new construction
Supply and Demand Interaction Concepts
The significance of equilibrium analysis
Indicators of disequilibrium
Vacancy rates
Absorption rates
Residual demand/supply imbalance
Price/Rent changes
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Demand Side Economic Variables
Housing
Housing or Dwelling Unit versus Structure
Housing Unit versus Household
Single-family detached versus single-family attached
Single-family versus multi-family structures
Sources of Population Data
Regional Planning Agencies
Metropolitan or City Planning Agencies
University forecasting centers
Department of Labor for the State
Local Development Agencies
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Feasibility Rent
Definition:
The rent (income) required to attract new construction for a specific property type.
Rent can be expressed in either monthly or annual amounts.
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Feasibility Rent
an example
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Feasibility Rent
an example
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Feasibility Rent
an example
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So That’s
Basic Concepts of Real Estate Marketability Analysis
Are there any Questions?
Wayne Foss, DBA, MAI, CRE, FRICS, Fullerton, CA USA
Email: waynefoss@usa.net
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